about switching to alternative energy vs. sticking with oil products... i think that, in the end, it doesn't matter. eventually, everyone will be forced to switch to "alternative" energies, because the oil supply will run out. however, before that happens, due to the simple rules of supply/demand, at some point, it will just not be worth it to own a car that runs on gasoline. it will be cheaper to own a car that runs on "alternative" energy. (and by then, these energies will no longer be "alternative.") but my point is, we don't need to switch until we have to. and the switch will happen naturally. right now, it's simply less of a hassle to get a car that runs on gasoline. the moment companies like shell, bp, exxon, etc. have just as many "alternative energy" stations as gasoline stations - AND the energy is the same price or less - then it's GOODBYE GASOLINE for me! but if i move to california and am forced to purchase a car right now, i'd have to go old school. let the other people test out the newfangled systems. the first incarnation of any product always has problems (see, for example 1st through 3rd generation iPod battery). engineers are not gods. products improve by trial and error. i don't want "new." i want the best!
this is also why i am foregoing laser eye surgery until i know the long term effects.
look at how long it took for mainstream americans to get plugged into the internet. i was online on dial-up BBSes in the late 80's. i knew how efficient the internet was when it came to file-sharing and communication. other people were less thrilled. it really annoyed me that other people couldn't see the potential of the internet. but eventually... people caught on. because now, you're fucked if you don't use the internet! but remember, we also went through a period of confusion and experimentation on the internet, creating systems - business plans, different web browsers, search engines - and the bubble burst in 2000, and all the crappy business plans went the way of the buffalo. many people, including myself, lost their shirts. but the ones that were successful hung on. those were the systems that worked. and now, we're still going through a period of evolution. it wasn't long ago that google became the boss. just a couple of years ago, it was yahoo. it will be a while before we see true market stability.
basically, if it's a good idea... it will be used. in time. but damned if i'm ever going to be a guinea pig again!
Monday, October 18, 2004
a thought on hybrid cars vs. gas-guzzling suv's
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ah, my dear, but you forget about the environmental effects of fossil fuels while we burn them. the need to transfer to alternative energies isn't a purely economic one, even though that seems to be the one that people care most about. they are horribly damaging to the bio-system that sustains human life -- global warming is not a theory. people like to argue about what's causing it, but i'm going with fossil fuels as the major cause.
getting back to the economic argument for alternative energies:
you can't make the transition quickly. spare capacity for oil is very very thin. and it's going to stay that way. therefore, any significant disruption in supply will have severe and immediate economic consequences. and not just in the 'there will be a recession' kind of consequence, but in the 'how the fuck do we grow and distribute food in the midst of the mother of all global great depressions sense.
during the oil crises of the 70s, gas station owners were threatened by armed people desperate for gasoline and gas tankers were attacked on the highway. there was a hella lot more spare capacity then, and the shortage was an artificial one. imagine an entirely natural,semi-permanent shortage, and say hello to martial law.
my old roommate was living in the midwest when the blackout happened last year. without electricity, the gas pumps wouldn't work. she went to a gas station for some milk, and while she was there, a man kept demanding that the cashier turn the pumps on and let him fill up. he kept getting increasingly agitated and seemed like he was going to pop a gasket no matter how many times the cashier tried to explain to him that without electricity, the pumps wouldn't work.
so, we need to start now, not when we're 'forced', because it could happen suddenly and without warning.
plus, we wouldn't need to spend billions of dollars and sacrifice thousands of lives in the middle east. middle eastern terrorists would have a lot less power to hurt us. and they are *well* aware that we need the oil they have. so, you better hope they don't topple the saudi government and cut us off.
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